As they seek to add a first baseman and starting pitching in the upcoming weeks, the Boston Red Sox are probably going to be active buyers at the trade deadline. However, if Boston can acquire some reliable big league players in exchange, they may be able to let go of young outfielder Jarren Duran before the trade deadline. Jeff Passan of ESPN recently hinted that Duran would be traded to the San Diego Padres in the upcoming weeks. In 2024, Duran had a fantastic breakout season, recording the seventh-best fWAR (6.8) in the major leagues. However, he outperformed his underlying metrics.
“Those metrics have somewhat regressed this year,” Passan added, “i.e., had some lucky outcomes.” “Now, he’s underperforming them — he has been unlucky — so his true talent is somewhere south of that star-level figure but better than the roughly 2 WAR (commensurate with a solid regular) he’s on pace for this season.” The Red Sox have enough outfield depth with Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony to think about moving Duran for top-end, controllable pitching.
Duran seems to be most suited to the Padres this season. Duran would be a fantastic match in left field with Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr., since San Diego is in dire need of a third outfielder. However, the Red Sox are also in the race.
Only if the Padres are sending major league players to the Red Sox in return for Duran could this transaction make sense. If the Padres want Duran, they could have to send Robert Suarez and prospects to Boston because they don’t have any reliable starting pitchers on the trade block. In any case, the Padres will most likely make a few good offers if Boston decides to shop Duran.
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