Part of the Miami Heat’s future became painfully evident following the massive domino effect of Davion Mitchell’s contract. Now that Mitchell has signed a two-year, $24 million contract with the Heat, Duncan Robinson’s offseason fate is likely determined. It’s likely he’s played his final game for the Heat.
Pat Riley stated at his end-of-season press conference about a month ago that Miami wants to stay below the luxury-tax threshold this season, unless, of course, they land a big fish.
Now that the Heat’s chances of acquiring a star have faded, getting under the tax was set to be one of their top concerns this summer.
Following Mitchell’s signing, the Heat are presently on track to be approximately $8 million above the luxury-tax threshold, provided no more changes are made. That would put Miami on course to become a luxury-tax team for the third consecutive season. Because of the intimidating repeater tax (which penalizes teams for being a luxury-tax team in three of the previous four years), the Heat would want to avoid it.
The simplest solution for the Heat to go under the tax line again is likely to part company with Robinson.
What the future holds for Robinson?
There are several possible outcomes for the Heat and Robinson during the next three days. The first is that Robinson can terminate his contract’s final year before June 29. He doesn’t have much time to make such a move, but it’s still an option.
Robinson has the option of terminating the contract and renegotiating with the Heat. It’s not a likely scenario, but it is absolutely an alternative. The Heat may potentially consider trading Robinson’s expiring deal.
Robinson’s contract retains value because it is not fully guaranteed until July 8. If a team is looking to get rid of a hefty salary in exchange for Robinson, who they can then waive before the guaranteed deadline, that may be a viable option for Miami.
However, I am somewhat optimistic about that situation. The final and most likely option is that the Heat waive Robinson before the July 8 deadline in order to get out from under his guaranteed contract. It’s not ideal and would essentially result in the Heat losing an asset for nothing, but this is the road the franchise has chosen after failing to trade him when his worth was higher than it is now.
Of course, the Heat might avoid all of this if they can deal Terry Rozier or Andrew Wiggins (for substantially less money) sometime this offseason. However, if the Heat isn’t confident in their ability to pull it off, Miami will most certainly waive Robinson. If that is the case, Robinson has had an excellent career with the Heat.
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